13. Final Project and Policy Brief Guide

Learning objectives

By the end of this chapter, you should be able to:

  1. Design a focused trade policy project.
  2. Turn simulation outputs into a clear written argument.
  3. Distinguish between a project report and a policy brief.
  4. Write an executive summary.
  5. Present trade creation and trade diversion results clearly.
  6. Make realistic and evidence-based policy recommendations.

Why this chapter matters

The final project is not only a technical exercise. It is a communication exercise.

Students must show that they understand the economics, the data, the simulation results, and the policy implications. A good project does not simply report numbers. It explains what the numbers mean.

Project objective

The final project should answer one applied trade question.

Examples:

  • Would a hypothetical FTA between Oman and another country create or divert trade?
  • Which sectors would benefit most from an FTA?
  • Would an agreement improve food-security-related trade?
  • Which country gains more from the simulated agreement?
  • What are the likely adjustment concerns?

A strong project has a narrow and clear question.

Final project structure

A good final project can use the following structure.

Section Purpose Suggested length
1. Introduction Present the research question and country pair. 1 page
2. Background Describe baseline trade and policy relevance. 1 to 2 pages
3. Method Explain the TINA simulation scenario. 1 page
4. Results Report trade creation, trade diversion, and sectoral effects. 2 to 3 pages
5. Discussion Interpret winners, losers, and policy implications. 1 to 2 pages
6. Conclusion Summarize the main message. Half page
7. References and appendix Include sources, screenshots, or additional tables. As needed

Executive summary

The executive summary should be short. It should tell the reader the main result before the details.

A useful structure is:

  1. What was simulated?
  2. What was the main result?
  3. Which sectors gained most?
  4. What is the policy recommendation?

Example:

This project simulates a hypothetical FTA between Country A and Country B using TINA. The results suggest that the agreement would generate more trade creation than trade diversion, with the largest gains in food processing, chemicals, and transport equipment. The policy recommendation is to pursue deeper market access in the sectors where trade creation is strongest, while monitoring adjustment pressures in import-competing sectors.

Baseline trade section

The baseline section should describe the existing trade relationship.

Use a table like this:

Indicator Country A to Country B Country B to Country A
Total exports
Total imports
Top product group
Agricultural trade value
Main policy concern

Then explain the table in words.

Do not leave the reader to interpret the table alone.

Results section

The results section should be built around a small number of clear tables.

Main simulation results

Indicator Value Interpretation
Trade creation
Trade diversion
Net effect
Country with larger gain
Main affected sector

Top sectoral gains

Rank Sector Country Estimated gain Interpretation
1
2
3

How to interpret results

A common weakness in student projects is to describe results without interpretation.

Use interpretation sentences such as:

  • The agreement generates more trade creation than trade diversion, suggesting a likely welfare gain.
  • The gains are concentrated in a small number of sectors, so adjustment policies may be needed.
  • The partner country gains more than Oman, suggesting an asymmetric distribution of benefits.
  • The agreement may improve food import access but could increase pressure on domestic producers.
  • Large trade diversion indicates that the agreement may shift sourcing away from efficient non-members.

Policy brief format

A policy brief is shorter and more direct than the full project.

Use this structure:

Section Content
Title Clear policy issue and country pair.
Executive message One paragraph with the main result and recommendation.
Background Why the issue matters.
Evidence Key simulation results in one table.
Policy implications What the results mean for policymakers.
Recommendation What should be done.
Limitation One or two caveats.

Policy recommendation

A recommendation should be specific and connected to the evidence.

Weak recommendation:

The countries should sign the FTA because trade will increase.

Better recommendation:

The FTA should be considered if negotiations prioritize sectors where trade creation is strongest and if adjustment support is prepared for sectors facing import competition.

Strong recommendations usually include conditions, not just yes or no answers.

Limitations section

Every project should include limitations.

Possible limitations include:

  • the simulation is based on model assumptions,
  • the results depend on baseline data,
  • non-tariff barriers may not be fully captured,
  • political feasibility is not modeled,
  • distributional effects within sectors may be hidden,
  • services and investment effects may be limited or excluded,
  • long-run dynamic effects are uncertain.

A limitations section does not weaken the project. It makes the analysis more credible.

Presentation guidance

For the class presentation, use fewer words and more tables or diagrams.

Suggested slide structure:

  1. Title and research question
  2. Why this country pair matters
  3. Baseline trade relationship
  4. TINA scenario
  5. Main simulation results
  6. Top sectors
  7. Trade creation versus diversion
  8. Policy recommendation
  9. Limitations
  10. Final takeaway

Do not read long paragraphs from slides. Explain the logic clearly.

Suggested grading criteria

Criterion What is expected
Research question Clear and focused.
Country-pair justification Economically meaningful.
Use of TINA Correct scenario and clear reporting.
Results Trade creation, trade diversion, and sectoral results reported.
Interpretation Results explained using course concepts.
Policy recommendation Evidence-based and realistic.
Writing quality Clear, concise, and well organized.
Presentation Professional and readable.

Common mistakes

Avoid these mistakes:

  1. Choosing a country pair without explanation.
  2. Reporting only total trade changes.
  3. Ignoring trade diversion.
  4. Ignoring sector-level results.
  5. Copying platform output without interpretation.
  6. Making broad policy claims not supported by the results.
  7. Using too many screenshots and too few tables.
  8. Forgetting limitations.
  9. Writing a long introduction but weak results section.
  10. Giving a recommendation that does not follow from the evidence.

Key takeaway

The final project should show that students can use trade data, simulation results, and economic reasoning to make a clear policy argument. The best projects are not the longest. They are the clearest, most focused, and most evidence-based.

Final project checklist

Before submitting, check that your project includes:

  • clear title,
  • research question,
  • country-pair justification,
  • baseline trade table,
  • TINA scenario description,
  • trade creation result,
  • trade diversion result,
  • top three sectoral effects,
  • interpretation of winners and losers,
  • policy recommendation,
  • limitations,
  • clean tables,
  • references or data notes.

Practice task

Write a one-paragraph executive summary for your final project. It should include:

  1. the country pair,
  2. the simulated policy,
  3. the main trade creation and diversion result,
  4. the top gaining sectors,
  5. one policy recommendation.